PhD Dissertation

1. van Sluisveld, M.A.E. (2017) 2°C through different lenses - Evaluating long-term energy system change for a 2°C constrained world https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/350885

On 4 July (2017) PBL researcher Mariësse van Sluisveld obtained her PhD at Utrecht University. The main conclusion of her research is that, in order to stay well below the 2°C climate objective, it is essential to combine different sources of knowledge to come to better policy advice. In this dissertation the rates of change as depicted in long-term energy scenarios are tested against the rates of technological change as found in history, as estimated by technology experts, as found in multi-model intercomparison studies and as measured in transdisciplinary research with transition scientists. The thesis concludes with an overview of how settled different analytical lenses are on the role and contribution of various energy technologies in an ‘2°C constrained’ world. Read further on the PBL website

Academic publications

1. DeCian, E., Dasgupta, S. Hof, A.F., van Sluisveld, M.A.E., Köhler, J., Pfluger, B. (2018) “Actors, Decision-making and institutions in quantitative systems modelling”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.10.004>
2. Mariësse A.E. van Sluisveld, Mathijs J.H.M. Harmsen, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Valentina Bosetti, Charlie Wilson, Bob van der Zwaan (2018) “Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios to expert projections”, Global Environmental Change, Volume 50, Pages 201-211, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378017301413
3. Mariësse A.E. van Sluisveld, Andries F. Hof, Samuel Carrara, Frank W. Geels, Måns Nilsson, Karoline Rogge, Bruno Turnheim, Detlef P. van Vuuren (2018) “Aligning integrated assessment modelling with socio-technical transition insights: An application to low-carbon energy scenario analysis in Europe”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, in Press, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162518300593
4. Detlef P. van Vuuren, Elke Stehfest, David E. H. J. Gernaat, Maarten van den Berg, David L. Bijl, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Vassilis Daioglou, Jonathan C. Doelman, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Mathijs Harmsen, Andries F. Hof & Mariësse A. E. van Sluisveld (2018) “Alternative pathways to the 1.5 °C target reduce the need for negative emission technologies”, Nature Climate Change, volume 8, pages391–397 (2018) doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0119-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0119-8
5. Van Vuuren, D.P., Hof, A.H. van Sluisveld, M.A.E., Riahi, K. (2017) “Open discussion of negative emissions is urgently needed” Nature Energy 2, 902–904, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-017-0055-2
6. van Sluisveld, M.A.E., Hof, A.F., van Vuuren, D.P., Carrara, S., Geels, F. Turnheim, B. (2017) “Aligning Integrated Assessment Modelling with Socio-Technical Transition insights: an application to low-carbon energy scenario analysis in Europe“ Technological Forecasting and Social Change https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162518300593
7. van Sluisveld, M.A.E., Hof, A.F., van Vuuren, D.P., Criqui, P., Matthes, F.C., Notenboom, J., Pedersen, S.L., Pfluger, B., Watson, J., Boot, P. (2017) “Low-carbon strategies towards 2050: Comparing ex-ante policy evaluation studies and national planning processes in Europe“ Environmental Science & Policy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.08.022
8. van Sluisveld, M.A.E., Harmsen, J.H.M., Bauer, N., McCollum, D., Riahi, K., Tavoni, M., van Vuuren, D.P., Wilson, C., van der Zwaan, B. “Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2°C scenarios with historically observed rates of change”, 35, 436-449, Global Environmental Change, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.019
9. van Sluisveld M.A.E., Herreras Martínez, SD, Daioglou, V, Vuuren, DP van, (2015) “Exploring the implications of lifestyle changes in 2°C mitigation scenarios using the IMAGE integrated assessment model”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.08.013
10. Tavoni, M, Kriegler, E, Riahi, K, Vuuren, D van, Aboumahboub, T, Bowen, A, Calvin, K, Campiglio, E, Kober, T, Jewell, J, Luderer, G, Marangoni, G, McCollum, D, van Sluisveld, M, Zimmer, A, Van der Zwaan, B (2014) “Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models”, Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2475
11. Otto, AAC, Gernaat, DEHJ, Isaac, M., Lucas, P., van Sluisveld, M.A.E., Berg, M. van den, Vliet, J. van, Vuuren, DP van (2014) “Impact of bio-energy demand on carbon leakage via land use in fragmented regimes with China and EU as first movers”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.01.015
12. van Sluisveld, M.A.E., Gernaat, DEHJ, Lucas, PL, Ashina, S., Calvin, KV, Garg, A., Isaac, M, Mouratiadou, I, Otto, AAC, Rao, S, Shukla, PR, Vliet, J. van, Vuuren, DP van (2014) “A multi-model analysis of post-2020 mitigation efforts of five major economies” for Climate Change Economics (Open Access)
13. van Sluisveld, M.A.E., Worrell, E. (2013) The paradox of packaging optimization – a characterization of packaging source reduction in the Netherlands, Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Volume 73, April 2013, Pages 133-142, ISSN 0921-3449, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2013.01.016.
14. Worrell, E., van Sluisveld, M.A.E. (2013) Research article: Material efficiency in Dutch packaging policy Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A March 13, 2013 371 1986 20110570; https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0570

Scientific Reports

1. van Sluisveld, M.A.E., de Boer, H.S., Hof, A.H., van Vuuren, D.P., Schneider, C., Lechtenböhmer, S. (2018) “European decarbonisation scenarios for industry”, H2020 REINVENT, Deliverable 4.2 Open Access
2. Schneider, C., Friege, J., Samedi, S., Lechtenböhmer, S. , van Sluisveld, M.A.E., de Boer, H.S., Hof, A.H., van Vuuren, D.P., (2017) “Existing visions and scenarios for European industry decarbonisation”, H2020 REINVENT, Deliverable 4.1 Open Access
3. Mariësse van Sluisveld, Pieter Boot, Pieter Hammingh, Jos Notenboom, Detlef van Vuuren (2016) “Low-carbon energy scenarios in six north-west European countries”, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PBL Publication number: 2507 Open Access
4. van Vuuren, DP, van Sluisveld, M, Hof, AF (2015) “Implications of Long-Term Scenarios for Medium-Term Targets (2050)”, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Open Access
5. van Vuuren, DP; Elzen; M. den, Hof; A, Roelfsema; M, Lucas; PL, van Sluisveld; M.A.E., Gernaat; DEHJ, Otto; AAC, Berg; M van den, Harmsen; JHM, Schaeffer; M, Admiraal, A, “Long-term climate policy targets and implications for 2030” (2014), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PBL Publication number: 498 Open access
6. LIMITS Deliverable No 3.2 (2014): Report on the implications of 2˚C in terms of technology transitions and key thresholds (D3.2), FP7 LIMITS, Open Access
7. M. A. E. van Sluisveld, Andries F. Hof, Samuel Carrara, Enrica DeCian, Jonathan Köhler, Philipp Oehler, Benjamin Pfluger, Machteld Schoolenberg, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Joyce Zwartkruis (2014) “Deliverable D1.1 Set of preliminary scenarios to be used in other WPs”, FP7 PATHWAYS, Open Access
8. LIMITS Deliverable No 3.1 (2014): Report on the comparison of model runs, based on the global and national IAMs (D3.1), FP7 LIMITS, Open Access

Organizational work

1. PBL Academy Lecture “World Energy Outlook 2018” inviting Fatih Birol (IEA) & Dutch Minister of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy Eric Wiebes (Min EZK) to talk, 200 participants, PBL, Den haag, 15 November 2018
2. IMAGE 3.2 advisory board meeting, with Jae Edmonds (PNNL), Bert Metz, Marcel Berk (Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy), Keywan Riahi (IIASA), Dolf Gielen (IRENA) and Rob Dellink (OECD) as part of the advisory committee, 16 participants, PBL, Den haag, 9 November 2018
3. Symposium “Changes in the interaction between science and policy, focusing on the development of energy and climate sciences and the application of modelling tools”, inviting Jae Edmonds (PNNL), Leen Hordijk, Marcel Berk (Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy), Keywan Riahi (IIASA), Dolf Gielen (IRENA) and Rob Dellink (OECD) for a talk, (90 participants) PBL, Den haag, 9 November 2018. On behalf of Tom Kram.
4. Department outing towards the faculty of Process Engineering (Prof. Ad van Wijk), 40 particpants, 2 november 2018
5. PBL round table “Low-carbon energy scenarios in NW European countries” (21 participants, 10 June 2016, Utrecht, the Netherlands). Participants from UK, Germany, France, Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands and the European Commission. Report online available.
6. Department outing towards the Port of Rotterdam, 40 particpants, 29 november 2017
7. Symposium “The road to Paris – Climate Change Policy & Practice” (65 participants, 1 April 2015, Utrecht, The Netherlands), On behalf of Young Energy Specialists and Development Cooperation (YES-DC). See invitation here.
8. Symposium ‘Successes and failures in the dialogue between science and policy’ (120 participants, 20 February 2015, Utrecht, The Netherlands). Organized on behalf of Leo Meyer.
9. Expert Workshop “INNOVATION IN RELATION TO BUILDING ENERGY DEMAND IN IAMS” (60 participants, 20-21 January 2015, Utrecht, The Netherlands). Support staff for the FP-7 project ADVANCE.
10. Congress “The new world order - shifting geopolitics” (60 participants, 15 november 2014, Academiegebouw, Utrecht, The Netherlands). On behalf of Young Energy Specialists and Development Cooperation (YES-DC).
11. Symposium ‘The role of materials in the energy transition’(40 participants. 19 november 2013, Academiegebouw, Utrecht, The Netherlands). On behalf of Young Energy Specialists and Development Cooperation (YES-DC). Report online available.
12. Project meeting “AMPERE 4th project meeting” (50 participants. 12-14 november 2012, Pietershof, Utrecht, The Netherlands). On behalf of the FP-7 project AMPERE. Report online available.
13. Workshop “The feasibility of transitions in 2 degree scenarios” (25 participants. 25 September 2012, De Witte Vosch, Utrecht, The Netherlands). Organized on behalf of the FP-7 projects RESPONSES/LIMITS. Report online available.

Presentations & Invited talks

1. Poster Presentation REINVENT scenarios on “industry decarbonization by 2050”, 29 November 2018, Brussels, Belgium.
2. Presentation at the IMAGE advisory board meeting on “Heterogeneity”, 9 November 2018, PBL, The Hague, The Netherlands
3. Invited talk at the European Calculator Expert Consultation on “Scenarios for Decarbonising European Industries”, 10 July 2018, Vienna, Austria
4. Invited talk at the MIDDEN project meeting, “MIDDEN meets REINVENT”, May 14th, 2018, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
5. van Sluisveld, M.A.E. “National energy roadmaps towards 2050 and model input for analysis”, 22 November 2016, European Environmental Agency (EEA), Copenhagen, Denmark
6. van Sluisveld, M.A.E. “Making sense of long-term scenarios on energy system change”, 13 October 2016, BlueCity, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
7. van Sluisveld, M.A.E. “Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2°C scenarios with historically observed rates of change”, 16 November 2015, The 8th Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium, Seminaris SeeHotel, Potsdam, Germany
8. van Sluisveld, M.A.E. “Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2°C scenarios with historically observed rates of change”, 28 August 2015, International Sustainable Transitions Conference 2015, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK
9. van Sluisveld, M.A.E. “The feasibility of alternative mitigation scenarios”, 21-22 April 2015, WholeSEM, BE4 workshop, The Senate House, London, UK
10. van Sluisveld, M.A.E. “Set of preliminary scenarios to be used in other WPs -WP1 Break-out session” - PATHWAYS meeting, 17 July 2014, Manchester University, Manchester, UK
11. van Sluisveld, M.A.E. ‘The feasibility of technological change - preliminary results’ - LIMITS meeting, 4 June 2014, Xijiao Hotel, Beijing
12. van Sluisveld, M.A.E., “The potential of lifestyle and lifestyle change in 2 degree scenarios - preliminary results” - LIMITS meeting, 27 September 2013, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
13. van Sluisveld, M.A.E., “A multi-model analysis of post-2020 mitigation efforts of five major economies” - LIMITS meeting, 12 Februari 2013, The Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences, Amsterdam

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